By Rae Goco and Marcus Suner

In the heart of Metro Manila lives the Dela Cruz family, a young couple having a sole breadwinner and three children aged 3, 12, 15 who live each day trying to make ends meet. As the country moves forward under different leaderships, all leaving and creating vastly changing economies, their lives shift in phases for good and worse. 

2015-2016

When Former President Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III took office, his administration’s economic and fiscal policies were summed up by the phrase “good governance, good economics”, as it was centered on increasing confidence in the country’s leadership. The country’s growth rate and foreign investment accelerated, with recognition from international firms and restored optimism from the business sector, resulting in the country’s credit ratings being upgraded the most in the world and unemployment decreasing by around 261,000; and the national debt incurred amounted to Php 1.37 trillion, with Php 3.6 trillion paid for debt servicing for all six years. Exchange rates were also stable and comparatively low, ending at around Php 46 per dollar when he left.

Nearing the end of the Aquino administration, the nominal minimum wage in the NCR would be raised to Php 481, an underwhelming increase of Php 77 throughout the administration or an average of Php 12.83 yearly in comparison to the past three administrations’ increases. However, for the Dela Cruz family, this wage would still not be enough to sustain them. The family living wage, which is the weekly amount needed to support a family of five with sole breadwinners, was Php 1,090 in 2016, making the minimum wage less than half of what was needed at the time.

On the other hand, inflation was at an average of 2.8 in Aquino’s term. This meant that the prices of goods were rising slowly, but were more tolerable for the average family. Still, families like the Dela Cruzes would have faced struggles with the increasing prices of commodities, such as rice, that faced price hikes primarily directed to hoarding.

Unemployment rates, though dropping, were still at 6.1% by the time Aquino’s term ended and were declining at a much slower pace. In order to attempt to solve this problem, the K-to-12 curriculum was implemented in which the Dela Cruz children, rather than going through 10 years of basic education, would have to go through 12 years of it. The economic benefit of the curriculum was to curate multiskilled and specialized workers without a college degree to decrease unemployment and increase the country’s economic growth .

At this point, there were no significant negative economic hikes during the administration. The minimum wage did not meet the conditions of a family living wage, and while inflation was low suggesting a slower rise of price, families like the Dela Cruzes would have still had difficulty to purchase and procure. The K-to-12’s long-term economic impact was still in theory though there was already hesitancy towards it. 

2021-2022

As Former President Rodrigo Duterte took over, the country’s economic priority shifted towards the popular catchphrase and flagship project “Build, Build, Build”, highlighting the importance of infrastructure throughout the country. Economic growth and the budget for national infrastructure increased; however, foreign investments were on the decline. Despite the thinking that the demand for public works will create new jobs, IBON Foundation wrote that under Duterte’s government, 3.8 million people were unemployed, the highest among post-Marcos Sr. administrations. National debt ballooned to Php 12.76 trillion, with the administration borrowing Php 6.8 trillion. Moreover, peso exchanges were also weaker than the previous administration, valued at around Php 55 per dollar as he left.

When President Duterte’s term came to an end, the economy had done more harm than good for families like the Dela Cruzes. The rising prices of goods and services, along with the real value of minimum wage, meant families like the Dela Cruzes would be grasping at straws with the higher prices not only taking into account the low wages but also the insufficient cash subsidies for households.  

With headline inflation being 5.4% from the 3.0% rate in January of that same year, all are worsened by the hikes in food and non-food commodities like transportation due to heightening of fuel prices. As prices of goods like food have increased between Duterte’s first and last month in office, the Dela Cruzes would be struggling to even access their most basic needs. The odds that the breadwinner would be unemployed is high as they could be part of the 3.8 million unemployed or 6.4 million underemployed in July 2021, a large margin from the 1.4 million unemployed before the pandemic. Though, it can also be likely that while they are employed and part of the 2.5 million employed in the pandemic, it is likely that they would have either a low-paying or non-regular job. 

They could also be impacted by the worsening poverty rate as the pandemic challenged the financial situation of many families, especially those who lost household income, causing them to take from their savings. An investigation by IBON into this showed that since March 2020, they estimate that the poorest 70% of families (roughly 17.3 million) lost an average of Php 13,000 to 32,000 each. With subsidies falling short, the Dela Cruzes would struggle to continue the education of their children in the pandemic considering the expenses of a single learning device which meets the DepEd standards for one child alone.

It is undeniable that with the pains of the pandemic and the slow economic turmoils within the administration, the Dela Cruz family did not have it easy and would face many difficulties. However, the worst is only yet to come.

May 2022-January 2023

With another Marcos in presidency, son of the man who birthed the country the title “Sick Man of Asia”, a lot can be feared and deduced for the future of the economy in the current economic situation of his term.

Even with the economic growth driven by consumer spending accelerating as we transition post-pandemic, the Marcos administration marked a 14-year high of 8% in the inflation rate in November 2022. Outstanding debt has ballooned to a record-high Php 13.64 trillion, with around Php 1.6 trillion allocated for debt servicing for 2022 alone. 

Just this month, red and white onion prices hiked to as high as a whopping 600 pesos per kilo. With onions being a staple ingredient in Filipino cuisine, it is definitely taking a toll on the consumer spending of the Filipino house. Additionally, alongside the supply chain issues, there are also factors such as the weak peso and expensive fuel prices that make transportation expensive for trade and the regular commuter. 

While employment rises and the unemployment rate lowers, the cost of living is still a challenge for the Filipino family. However, this doesn’t account for the larger 7.16 million individuals that seek for better pay and hours. Belonging in this percentage would mean that the family’s breadwinner would be employed but not well and enough. 

How would this affect a family like the Dela Cruzes? Well, because of these prices and factors, experts anticipate that many families like them could fall into poverty when their incomes are unable to keep up with rising prices. For a family with a sole breadwinner with a minimum wage that still doesn’t meet the family living wage, this is all the more foreseen.

Present

In the end, the life of a family truly shows the drastic conditions one could live throughout these three administrations. While each period had its ups and downs, truth be told that the quality of life and economy in the country has been at an accelerating decline ever since the end of the Aquino administration.

With the investigation of the conditions of their lives at the end of the year by accounting for the historical changes and trends, it begs the question, “Have we ever lived, or are we just nearing the rebirth of the sick man of Asia?”
Perhaps, right now, the answer is “Not yet”.